Are we in a “Junk Wax 2.0” era? A Reddit user kicked off a lively discussion after revealing 1/1 cards are not as scarce as many think.
Reddit user SidewinderX143 investigated how many licensed Gunnar Henderson rookie cards were produced in 2023. What they found was a bit shocking.
According to SidewinderX143’s analysis, there are a whopping 153 “1/1” Henderson rookie cards, ranking the 17th-most scarce card out of 39 types. The scarcest was three “/3” cards, with only nine total.
The least scarce numbered cards were those to “/99.” Since there were 63 different types of “/99” Henderson rookie cards, there are a total of 6,237 of those sequential cards of the reigning American League Rookie of the Year. Among cards numbered to “/50,” there are 74 different types, equating to 3,700 total cards.
Surprisingly, the “/2023” base gold card is more scarce than the “/50,” “/75,” “/99,” “/150,” “/199,” “/250,” and “/299” cards. There were 1,494 different 2023 Henderson rookie cards, with at least 665 serialized.
SidewinderX143’s findings sparked a spirited debate on Reddit, including if the hobby is entering a second junk wax era similar to that of the late 1980s and early 1990s when sports cards were significantly overproduced.
2023 GUNNAR HENDERSON Topps Chrome Aqua Wave Rookie Auto /199 💎 PSA 10 💎 #ad #thehobby https://t.co/Y21XedUsTT pic.twitter.com/T6T7UEC1qd
— Memorabilia Finder (@AutographDeals1) February 27, 2024
“Love this math! To all the people saying this is Junk Wax 2.0 – I don’t think you lived through Junk Wax 1.0. There’s literally MILLIONS of cards from that era around,” writes Reddit user Nacho040506. “These #’d cards will always be of value based simply on supply and demand. Look at it this way – just in the US there’s 300 million people. If just 1% collect cards that’s 3 million people. At 30,000+ #d cards referenced above, that means only 1% of the card loving population has a #d card of any given player. Let’s put a little common sense to this before we get all doom and gloom. It’s a hobby, if you hate it that much do something else.”
Forthebirds123 responded, “It’s not a repeat of junk wax 1.0, but it definitely is a new version of it. I lived through it and see tons of similarities but a few differences. Product is available everywhere. There are millions of cards out there, they are just spread out more amongst more sets. Sure there are a few cards that hold value because of a different colored border, but those are getting more and more watered down after every release. I feel that this year is like 1988. We haven’t hit the peak of junk wax yet but the peak is maybe 2 years away with the way it’s going. As a collector I loved junk wax 1.0 and I enjoy this version of it. But to not realize it is to almost purposefully turn a blind eye and deny it.”
One Reddit user says it’s important to realize which numbered card you’re looking to purchase.
“Folks will read this and jump to ‘junk wax 2.0.’ What you should take away from this is that which card you buy is infinitely more important than the denominator of the card you buy. Buy the /99 true green. Don’t buy the /99 insert,” says oooriole09. “Theres more /50s, /75s, and /99s because those are the most common numbering tactics.”
RedBaronSportsCards posted, “I’ve been tossing this idea around with my son in a similar way since I started collecting again with him a year ago. Just a raw, ballpark estimate if you add all those up: 30,000+ numbered cards of Gunnar or any other similarly ‘in demand’ player ON TOP of all the non-numbered base cards. And cards now are taken care of much better than in the 80s which were taken care of much better than in the 60s. Junk wax 2.0 is going to dwarf junk wax 1.0”
Do you think we’re entering a new junk wax era? Let HobbyListings know in the comments below!